【必读】美国著名经济学家深层分析投资移民关键点
浏览次数：3745    添加时间：2016/7/1    来源：中华网

Scott Wagner 美国著名经济学家
 
 Scott Wagner 是区域中心控股集团的首席经济学家。 2011 年至 2013 年期间,他与美国移民局EB-5 投资移民裁判庭密切合作, 领导顾问专家团为 EB-5 项目的众多现行裁定及行政程序做出了奠基性的贡献。在 2014 年, Wagner Consulting Group瓦格纳咨询公司创始人, 为 EB-5 提供经济分析咨询服务。他在EB-5 领域的专业积淀和美国移民局的内部视角是集团的宝贵财富。
 
 众所周知,就业是否能完成创造是 EB-5 投资移民成功与否的关键因素, 而围绕此关键因素的种种话题一直弥漫在 EB-5 行业内外的各种媒介。我们就此话题向 Scott 提出了 8 个基本问题,希望在 Scott 的回复之后, 能让大家对于就业创造的方法和标准上有一个更加清楚的认识和理解。
 
 基于当下美国投资移民非常火热,为了让更多有这方面需求的人深层次的了解投资移民的关键点,我们采访了Scott Wagner。
 
 以下记者简称Q1,Scott Wagner简称Scott。
 
 Q1: In general, what’s the most crucial factor in getting I-829 approval? (总体来说, 获得美国投资移民永久绿卡批准的决定性因素是什么? )
 
 Scott: Accountability, consistency, and detail-oriented project management. Also, reasonable job creation estimates. There are lots of reasons for denials and RFEs at the I-829 stage, but insufficient job creation seems to be the most frequent. Therefore, to make sure that project’s job creation is reasonable and conservative is one of the key factors in getting I-829 approval.
 
 译文: 责任性,一致性,和完善的项目管理。此外,就是合理的就业数字计算。在 829阶段(永久绿卡申请阶段),被提出补件和被拒绝的原因有很多,就业创造不足或不合理,是所有原因中出现最多的一个。所以在就业创造方面,确保拥有合理稳健的计算模式,是获得美国投资移民永久绿卡批准的决定性因素之一。
 
 Q2: How many jobs does every $500,000 investment have to create? (每 50 万美元的投资需要创造多少就业? )(也就是说都少个就业可以创造一个移民名额)
 
 Scott: 10 total jobs. This can include direct, indirect, and induced.
 
 译文: 10 个就业, 这里面包含直接, 间接和衍生就业。
 
 Q4: What is direct job creation, indirect job creation and induced job creation? How do you calculate them? (什么是直接就业, 间接和衍生就业?如何计算得出的? )
 
 Scott: Here’s the breakdown of the job categories. They are calculated using an Input Output (I-O) model. There are several I-O models. I prefer to use the Regional Input Output Modeling System (RIMS II) because it is transparent, simple for USCIS adjudicators to understand, and because it is produced by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis – a government agency.
 
 • Direct Jobs represent the jobs that are directly generated through the on-site operations of the business (for example: me, the Economist at RCH).
 
 • Indirect Jobs represent the jobs that are created elsewhere as a result of supply purchases made by the business (for example: a manufacturing job at Dell where the computer that I am using was made)
 
 • Induced Jobs represent the jobs that are created elsewhere as a result of expenditures made by the employees of the business and supplier businesses (for example: a waiter at the restaurant where I am going to eat lunch today)
 
 译文: 以下是就业创造的类型划分。 这些就业是通过投入-产出( I-O)模型计算出来的。
 
 投入-产出( I-O)模型分为几种,我比较倾向于用区域投入产出模型系统( RIMS II),
 
 因为这个系统对于移民官来说理解起来比较简单,而且这个模型是政府机构-美国经济分
 
 析局建立的。
 
 • 直接就业是指企业运营过程中直接产生的就业(例如, 有一家企业雇佣我作为经济分析师,我就算是直接就业)
 
 • 间接就业是指企业在供应链上所产生的就业(例如,戴尔电脑的制造厂商)
 
 • 衍生就业是指企业在运营过程中和供应链上产生的就业人员平时生活消费中所产生
 
 的就业(例如,我今天吃午餐的餐厅所雇佣的服务员)
 
 Q3: How does direct investment and regional centers differ in creating jobs? Which one has more advantages? (直接投资和通过区域中心投资在就业创造上有区别吗?哪个更有优势? )
 
 Scott: A regional center is permitted to take credit for indirect and induced jobs. A direct investment is not. The regional center model is advantageous because the investor can take credit for the indirect and induced jobs created during the construction process. Construction is a reliable job creation process whereas operations are more susceptible to the failure of the business or product and the ability of the company to earn expected revenues.
 
 译文: 通过区域中心投资在计算就业上是可以使用间接和衍生就业的,而直接投资则是
 
 不可以的。二者相比较,区域中心的模型比较有利,因为在计算就业的时候是可以将建筑施工过程中所产生的间接和衍生就业包括在内的。建筑施工过程产生的就业更加的安全,将来企业倒闭或者公司经营不善只会影响经营过程中产生的就业,对建筑施工过程产生的就业没有影响。
 
 Q5: At which stages of a project job can be created? (在一个项目中,哪个或哪些阶段是可以产生就业的? )
 
 Scott: Construction and operations. Construction is a defined period while operations is ongoing. Jobs can also be created during an expansion of operations. RCH, in particular, focuses on the construction phase, where job creation is more predictable.
 
 译文: 建筑过程和经营过程。建筑施工时间是固定的,但是经营是持续性的。企业扩大经营也可以产生就业。SBA504贷款投资移民项目只计算建筑施工过程中产生的就业, 这部分就业是可预测性的,只要项目完工,就业即成功创造。
 
 Q6: Do indirect and induced job creations necessarily rely on direct job creations? (间接和衍生就业的创造一定要依靠直接就业的产生来实现吗? )
 
 Scott: They are all related. But the extent to which indirect/induced jobs rely on the direct jobs depends on the specific methodology. As I’ve mentioned, RCH focuses on the construction phase. The methodology we use to create jobs during the construction phase does not rely on direct jobs, rather the methodology relies on expenditures, which are more predictable and easier to account for.
 
 译文: 他们都是相关联的。但是间接和衍生就业是否要依靠直接就业取决于具体我们使用的方法。如我之前提到的, SBA540贷款投资移民项目只计算建筑施工过程中产生的就业, 这部分就业不用依靠直接就业的产生来实现,而是取决于建筑费用的支出,也就是花钱来创造就业,所以这部分就业是更容易预测和解释的。
 
 Q7: When USCIS review I-829 applications, which category of job creation will be most easily acknowledged? How difficult is it to generate this category of job creation? (在移民局审批永久绿卡的申请时,什么类别的就业最容易获得认可?此类就业的创造难度有多大? )
 
 Scott: Jobs from construction are most easily acknowledged because they rely on expenditures, which more are predictable and easier to account for. For example, if I want to buy a car, I know how much it’s going to cost. I pay that money. I have a record of that money. Jobs are created from my expenditures. In other words, jobs are created when money is spent, and it is the easiest way to create jobs.
 
 译文: 建筑过程产生的就业是最容易被认可的,因为这部分就业取决于建筑费用的支
 
 出,所以更容易预测和解释。例如,如果你想买一辆车,你知道你要花多少钱,并且有你花了这笔钱的记录。就业是通过你花了多少钱计算出来的,也就是说,只要钱花到了该花的地方,就业自然产生, 这也是最简单的创造就业方法。
 
 Q8: As an investor, what’s the easiest way to learn to determine different projects’ respective potential in fulfilling its job creation requirements? Or what information do we need to roughly calculate potential projects’ job creations? Can you give an example? ( 作为一个投资人,在选择项目时如何在最短的时间内,相对准确的甄别待选项目完成就业创造的可能性?或者需要掌握什么信息,如何通过简单的运算得出待选项目能创造出就业的数量?能否举个例子? )
 
 Scott: My advice is to go small. Big projects have bigger problems. Bigger changes in costs. More scrutiny. Take the California Bullet Train, for example, with each phase of development, the estimated cost changes by tens of millions of dollars. That’s a lot of jobs. With big projects, it’s more difficult to forecasts costs, and it’s more difficult to track costs. Small projects are more predictable. There have less variables. Builders and project managers have more experience. You don’t want to punt your investment or your family’s citizenship. To calculate a very, very rough estimate of a project’s job creation, you need a construction cost and an I-0 employment multiplier, like RIMS II. The size of the I-O multiplier varies with several factors. To be conservative, you can estimate that each $1.0 million of construction costs will create 5 to 6 indirect and induced jobs. For example, if the construction cost is $5.0 million and the I-O multiplier is 5.5, then you’ll have 27 jobs. This will give you a very quick and rough estimate. However, at that point, the best thing to do is to make sure that your regional center is using an experienced economist and ask for more accurate job creation statistics. There’s a lot more to it. Multipliers depend on a region, and the choice of region depends on the specific location of a project and the local economic dynamics.
 
 译文:我建议选择规模较小的项目。大的项目一般问题会更多,建筑成本的变化更大,
 
 更多的审查。以加州新干线为例,每个阶段的成本变动都有数百亿美金, 这背后有很多的工作需要做。大的项目通常比较难于预估成本,也非常难以计算跟进成本的支出。
 
 规模较小的项目可预测性更高, 变动性更小。建筑商和项目经理有更多的经验。你不会想要您的投资和全家的绿卡受到任何的影响。粗略的估算就业的创造人数需要建筑成本和投入-产出( I-O)乘数,在 RIMS II 的计算模型中,投入-产出乘数会因为很多因素的变化而改变。保守预估,一般来说每 100 万美元的建筑预算可以产生 5 到 6 个间接和衍生就业。例如,如果一个项目的建筑成本是 500万美金, I-O 乘数是 5.5, 那么这个项目可以 产生 27 个就业机会。 这样计算可以快速得出一个粗略的就业预估。但是,我建议请一位有经验的经济分析师,因为就业的计算取决于很多的因素。乘数取决于区域,区域的选择取决于项目的具体地点和当地的经济动态。
 
 最后Scott Wagner根据自己多年的分析投资移民项目的经验,给出六点标准来判别投资移民项目的优劣：
 
 1, 是否有美国政府指定的第三方权威认证机构先行风险评估,
 
 2, 是否有美国政府和银行金融机构参与投资
 
 3, 是否是多家机构投资,EB5投资是否位于第一清偿顺位还款
 
 4, 建筑项目是否有建筑完工保险
 
 5, 是否为每一个投资人成立一家有限合伙公司
 
 6, 是否是中小型项目,EB5款资金不超过33%
 
 投资移民毕竟不是件小事,关乎资产,关乎未来。掌握这六点标准,会大大的降低投资移民的风险。
 
 来源：中华网